Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.363521 0.416923 0.474905 0.542465 0.618950 0.702780 0.801550
2025-07-27 0.296073 0.368903 0.454144 0.560997 0.691067 0.843952 1.036962
2025-08-03 0.246326 0.331335 0.437932 0.580749 0.766348 0.998562 1.310218
2025-08-10 0.193705 0.280595 0.397027 0.563254 0.793066 1.097950 1.531128
2025-08-17 0.150655 0.234477 0.354213 0.535861 0.802164 1.175467 1.734837
2025-08-24 0.122714 0.204453 0.328473 0.527633 0.835964 1.290705 2.006143
2025-08-31 0.100476 0.178751 0.304582 0.517885 0.865550 1.403310 2.288684
2025-09-07 0.086858 0.164300 0.295669 0.529781 0.929815 1.576041 2.684741
2025-09-14 0.070648 0.142145 0.270136 0.509860 0.939052 1.662584 2.954892
2025-09-21 0.059407 0.126741 0.253566 0.502467 0.967912 1.784208 3.297373
2025-09-28 0.049857 0.112616 0.236799 0.491741 0.988793 1.893995 3.632136
2025-10-05 0.044675 0.106318 0.233889 0.506677 1.058860 2.098958 4.159829
2025-10-12 0.038458 0.096782 0.223393 0.506076 1.101374 2.263057 4.641579
2025-10-19 0.034087 0.090490 0.218631 0.516670 1.168123 2.482218 5.256421
2025-10-26 0.030491 0.085259 0.215285 0.529845 1.242365 2.725759 5.949689
2025-11-02 0.025374 0.075017 0.198546 0.510149 1.243072 2.820477 6.354698
2025-11-09 0.020721 0.064824 0.179902 0.482634 1.222003 2.866700 6.664471
2025-11-16 0.017722 0.058454 0.169534 0.473323 1.241438 3.002575 7.182719
2025-11-23 0.015157 0.052679 0.159552 0.463180 1.257271 3.132252 7.702734
2025-11-30 0.013703 0.049941 0.157288 0.472886 1.323617 3.385616 8.532310
2025-12-07 0.011509 0.044214 0.145392 0.454262 1.314872 3.461226 8.958011
2025-12-14 0.009987 0.040321 0.138061 0.447104 1.335087 3.608990 9.572219
2025-12-21 0.008611 0.036541 0.130259 0.437113 1.346029 3.734904 10.147322